#Harris Campaign's Swing State Strategy: A High-Stakes Gamble
In a surprising pivot that could reshape the 2024 electoral landscape, Vice President Kamala Harris's campaign appears to be charting a course distinctly different from the well-worn path of her predecessor, Joe Biden. This shift in focus from the traditional Rust Belt battlegrounds to Sun Belt states represents not just a tactical adjustment, but a fundamental reimagining of the Democratic path to victory.
The New Electoral Map
According to a Democratic operative close to Harris, the campaign is eyeing a strategy that prioritizes Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. This marks a stark departure from the Biden playbook, which heavily emphasized Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania - the so-called "Blue Wall" that crumbled in 2016 but was painstakingly rebuilt in 2020.
What’s Really Changed?
The Biden Campaign was trending negative and growing worse during the last month. Despite a record-breaking bomb of a debate performance by Biden, a three-week foot dragging exercise in palace intrigue interrupted by an assassination attempt on Trump. An RNC convention which was largely positive for the new Trump GOP. Proving there were winds of momentum behind Trump.
As a counter — it was natural for the democrats to bounce back. Record setting small donor amounts to Harris’ campaign. Fitting for the fastest coronation in democrat party history. The democrats are thoroughly engaged in renewing their drive to win as a party.
However, a Harris Honeymoon will not last through the DNC convention. The Biden-Harris administration will need to overcome a subservient media to not correct them when going to far in a leftward lean. The timing of seeing two Presidents at once will only draw attention to the current faults and failures which got us to this point.
Harris plans to pursue controversial gun control measures which are not poplar to the independent center right in states with a conservative legislature. Nor is the idea of Medicare-For-All plan for enhancing healthcare. Whether Harris revives her 2020 primary platforms remains to be seen. But it is on the agenda especially with abortion top of mind and on Brand for Harris. Although the momala Tiktok persona could grate on the average voter’s patience — and be perceived as immature.
Strengths and Weaknesses
The Harris team's calculus appears to be based on the Vice President's demographic appeal. As an African-American woman, they're betting on her ability to energize minority voters, particularly in states with significant black populations like Georgia. However, this strategy is not without its risks.
While Harris may indeed overperform among black voters compared to Biden, her numbers among Hispanic voters - crucial for success in Nevada and Arizona - are not currently showing the same promise. In fact, former President Trump has made surprising inroads with this demographic, particularly when matched against Harris.
We have yet to see what Harris’ primary campaign will revolve around. Aside from the re-heated Biden campaign which skipped over
The Economy
Inflation
The Border
Foreign Policy
Kitchen Table Issues
The Perils of Abandoning the Midwest
The danger in this strategy lies in potentially ceding ground in the Midwest. Michigan and Wisconsin, while challenging, remain competitive for Democrats. Pennsylvania, in particular, seems perilous to de-prioritize. Biden's personal connection to the state - born in Scranton and well-known in the Philadelphia media market - gave him an edge that Harris simply doesn't possess.
It could be seen that cutting out the heartland would contribute to an unserious focus. Leading to people asking about her background. Her privileged upbringing, an out of touch, elitest tint. Primarily due to her roots as a somewhat conservative California Democrat who had to tilt hard left of Bernie Sanders during her doomed nepotism powered campaign in the 2020 Democrat primaries.
A Numbers Game
If the Harris campaign can successfully put Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia back into play while maintaining a presence in Pennsylvania and the Midwest, it does open up more paths to the crucial 270 electoral votes needed for victory. However, this is a big "if" - one that requires not just strong campaigning but also a significant shift in current polling trends.
The TikTok Factor and Youth Appeal
While much has been made of Harris's potential appeal to younger voters, particularly through platforms like TikTok, it's crucial to remember that social media engagement doesn't always translate to votes. The youth vote, while important, has historically been unreliable in terms of turnout.
Questions of Seriousness and Experience
Harris faces challenges beyond mere electoral math. There's a perception among some voters, particularly in working-class communities, that she lacks the gravitas and experience necessary for the highest office. “Out of touch” and recent missteps, such as skipping Israeli PM Netanyahu's address to Congress for a sorority convention, have only fueled these concerns.
Conclusion: A High-Risk, High-Reward Strategy
The Harris campaign's electoral strategy represents a bold gambit. By focusing on Sun Belt states and potentially sacrificing some Midwest strongholds, they're betting on a new coalition of voters that could reshape the electoral map. However, this approach is fraught with risks. It remains to be seen whether Harris can overcome perceptions of inexperience and successfully appeal to the diverse coalition needed to make her strategy work.
All eyes will be on Harris's travel schedule and ad buys. These will be the true indicators of where the campaign believes its path to victory lies. Such an unconventional approach could either be a stroke of genius or a costly miscalculation.
Source:
Is Kamala Harris changing the electoral map? - YouTube